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Trading Uranium
For those who like their trading radioactive, uranium offers a
wild ride. Prices exploded a couple of years ago, then dropped
back just as quickly to the $29 level, the boom up to $45. And
you thought oil prices were volatile. Nevertheless, prices have
been on a steady rise the last two years, and it's no
surprise.
Uranium has a number of natural advantages over oil or other
energy sources. The fuel produced from uranium lasts for
decades and can be recycled for decades more (in the form of
plutonium). That, after all, creates one of the pervasive
problems in dealing with it - it hangs around so long that
disposing of it is a political hot potato.
Nuclear power has by far the best safety record of any
large-scale energy generation technology. Oil and chemical
refineries can and have exploded, due to incompetence and
accident. Controls on the use of nuclear fuel are much more
strict, and strictly adhered to, than with conventional
fuels.
Though long considered almost evil, or at least generally
dangerous, by many in the U.S., nuclear power safely generates
16% of the world's electricity. Both Japan and France have
relied heavily on nuclear power for decades, and neither
country regrets the decision to use it as a major source of
power. France generates 78% of its electricity from nuclear
power and has never experienced a serious incident.
More power plants are being built around the world,
particularly in Asia. China will soon award an $8 billion
contract to build four new plants, on the way to constructing
27 by 2020. India plants to build 17 by 2012, tripling existing
capacity. Russia has reduced exports in order to retain fuel
for the 25 new plants planned there by 2020.
Most of those plants have not yet secured a long-term supply,
suggesting they will have to pay market prices as they near
completion.
Even the U.S. may soon see a change in the political winds,
where there is a coming together taking place between long-time
political foes. Many environmentalists are beginning to see
that nuclear power offers one of the best alternatives to
continued fossil fuel use, as concerns over global warming heat
up. And with the rising price of oil, those political forces
may just be reaching a tipping point in favor of nuclear.
At the same time demand is rising supplies remain tight.
Commercial stockpiles fell 50% from 1985 to 2003, and mining
remains expensive and difficult.
Cameco, an Australian mining company, is one of the world's
largest uranium suppliers. It plans to expand production 18% in
Canada's MacArthur River mine, currently the world's
largest.
Even so, supplies are unlikely to expand enough to meet the
growing demand to a point that would suppress the price.
Several analysts are expecting supplies to remain tight over
the next 10 years. As a result, prices are rising to levels not
seen since their peaks in the 1970s and are expected to remain
high for quite a while.
Annual demand is roughly 170 million pounds, while annual
supply is around 75 million pounds a year. The deficit is made
up from supplies stockpiled from the 1970s, the dismantling of
Russian nuclear warheads, and other sources. But that supply is
dwindling.
Fuel costs are a relatively small cost for power plants, but
vital to their operation. They can not afford to run out, since
there is no substitute.
All those facts bode well for metals traders who might have an
interest in uranium. Note that uranium doesn't trade on the
open market, like other metals. Contracts are made privately.
But investors interested can buy mining stocks, futures
contracts, options, etc just as with any other investment. See
your broker for details.
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