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Tips on Buying and Selling
Stocks
'SOFT' FACTORS
The first thing to consider about investing isn't technical at
all. EPS, P/E, P/S, MA and EMA, RSI and dozens of other
indicators are all important. But start at the beginning by
looking not outside, but in.
What kind of investor are you? Young with a little capital to
risk but a large earnings potential over several decades?
Retired, or near it, with a healthy savings but living on
limited income?
And, more psychologically, what's your temperament for research
and your tolerance for risk? Are you comfortable with
statistics or intuitive? Are you detail oriented, or tend to
look at the big picture? Not mutually exclusive categories, to
be sure.
All these factors will influence your investment strategy. You
do have a strategy, right? If not, go back to square one and
develop that first.
'HARD' FACTORS
PEG - Projected Earnings Growth
Traditionally, Price to Earnings (P/E) ratio was a helpful
indicator of value. Low price, relative to large earnings (per
share) suggested a company's share price would likely rise in
the future. But that was before thousands of new companies
entered the public markets and when investing meant buying
Coca-Cola stock.
But P/E isn't entirely useless, even today. Just supplement it
with a little more information to calculate the PEG - Projected
Earnings Growth.
Calculate PEG by taking the P/E and dividing it by the
projected growth in earnings. For example, a stock with a P/E
of 20 and projected earning growth next year of 10% would have
a PEG of 2 (20/10 = 2). The lower the number the less you're
paying for a unit of future earnings growth. Therefore, a
company with a high P/E may still be a value if it has a high
projected earnings.
Of course, the key is getting accurate projections. While no
one can predict with certainty, many Internet sites provide
those numbers and over time, with diligence, you can find one
you trust.
Just as deciding to buy is, in small part, finding a large PEG
stock, electing a time to sell means estimating when PEG is
likely to take a turn downward. So, tracking PEG over time in
the form of a simple chart should be a weekly (or more often)
task on your research list.
ROE - Return On Equity
Some companies can make silk purses out of pigs ears, others
couldn't make a profit if they were given Apple's engineering
and marketing teams for free. Return on Equity is one measure
of how well a company uses its assets to produce earnings. (By
the way, silk comes from worms, not pigs.)
Easy to calculate, simply divide Net Income by Book Value
(assets minus liabilities). Both numbers needed are easy to
obtain from Internet sites. Three percent is low, 15% is
healthy - but be sure to compare to other companies in the same
economic sector, and track the number over the long term.
Obviously, when projected ROE is high (based on historical
trend) you want to buy. Timing the sell is a matter of
estimating when ROE is trending downward.
Some factors to consider for the latter involve major mergers
which look to be unwise (HP acquiring Compaq is one example),
major technology or management changes (this can be positive or
negative), lawsuits initiated or settled, and general economic
factors influencing that company more than others.
Continually add to your database and your toolkit. Track the
numbers and add new numbers to track. MA - moving averages and
RSI - Relative Strength Indicator are two of the more common
technical indicators used, for example. After you're
comfortable with those, seek out some of the methods of
quantifying risk.
And don't forget to develop that strategy. Tools are useless if
you don't know what you want to do with them.
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